Rwanda has faced numerous threats that have often been overlooked or disbelieved by the international community. The country narrowly avoided catastrophe on two significant occasions: November 25, 2021, and January 25, 2025.
The events unfolded in the shadow of the Nyiragongo volcano and the dense forests of Virunga National Park. The Congolese armed forces (FARDC), supported by various forces, including groups with ties to genocide and external backers, were preparing a coordinated invasion aimed at seizing northern Rwanda in a swift, single-night operation. This plan had been meticulously developed and refined over several years, receiving political approval. However, a combination of factors, including geography and the effectiveness of the M23 rebellion, dramatically altered the course of events. What was initially intended to be a critical moment for Rwanda instead became the point at which the invasion quietly unraveled.
The 2021 Invasion Plan
In late 2021, military strategists in Kinshasa identified November 25 as the date to launch an operation they believed would reshape the region. Congolese army units, accompanied by FDLR elements still bearing symbols of the 1994 Genocide against the Tutsi, were to penetrate Rwanda’s northern border. These forces would be followed by Mai-Mai militias and other armed groups.
The operation was audacious, depending on the perceived inaction of MONUSCO and the natural cover provided by the volcanic terrain, ideal for infiltration. Rocket launchers, disguised as food supplies, were transported under tarpaulins labeled “rice.” The plan received personal approval from Tshisekedi.
This wasn’t merely theoretical. DR Congo had previously tested Rwanda’s defenses. In October 2019, FDLR fighters crossed into Kinigi from Rutshuru, killing 14 civilians. This act served as a reconnaissance mission, assessing response times and border security.
Divine Intervention
The saying “God spends the day elsewhere, but returns to sleep in Rwanda” took on new meaning in 2021. The intervention wasn’t divine in the traditional sense but emerged from the forests surrounding the Sarambwe hills in eastern DR Congo.
On November 7, 2021, eighteen days before the planned invasion, M23 fighters under Commander Sultani Makenga emerged from the forests. By morning, they had seized Ndiza, a village in the Rutshuru Territory. By nightfall, Runyoni, a strategic area in the region, was under their control.
Makenga’s forces continued their advance, seizing Rumangabo, a crucial military base with artillery and supplies, followed by Cyanzu and the high ground overlooking Mount Nyiragongo. Within six months, Bunagana, a town on the DR Congo-Uganda border, was under M23 control.
Rwanda observed with cautious optimism as its border was effectively shielded by a rebel buffer zone. The corridor intended for the invasion was transformed into a series of M23 checkpoints. The militias preparing to enter Musanze found themselves facing M23 fighters instead of Rwandan villages. The November 25 invasion plan was not canceled but rendered irrelevant. The armed groups intended for the attack fell into disarray. FDLR units began looting Congolese villages, and ammunition intended for the assault was seized by the rebels. By the time Kinshasa recognized the situation, M23 tax collectors were stationed at the Bunagana border.
The 2025 Invasion Plan
Despite the setback, Kinshasa escalated its efforts. Between 2022 and 2024, a larger, more expensive coalition was assembled, including:
- FDLR
- SADC forces under the SAMIDRC banner
- Burundi government forces
- South African Rooivalk helicopters
- Wazalendo militias
- Eastern European mercenaries
By mid-2023, nearly 900 ex-Legionnaires and freelance fighters from Romania, Belarus, and Bulgaria were stationed in Goma. Officially, they were “trainers,” but in reality, they guarded the airport, trained Wazalendo militias, manned defensive lines, and prepared for a renewed assault toward Rubavu, a town on the northern shores of Lake Kivu in Rwanda.
SADC trenches surrounded Sake, a Congolese town located 25 kilometers west-northwest of Goma. Burundian armor moved toward Nyiragongo. Rooivalk helicopters symbolized regional dominance. The coalition believed victory was assured this time.
The new invasion date was set for January 25, 2025. Tshisekedi publicly declared that Rubavu would fall, followed by Musanze, where FDLR commanders would celebrate. Their vision was to force Rwanda into negotiations with the génocidaires.
However, Kigali was closely monitoring the situation. Kagame’s warnings about existential threats were based on intelligence showing a growing war machine on Rwanda’s border. Once again, the international community largely ignored these warnings.
The Siege of Goma
Kinshasa did not see its planned attack on Rubavu come to fruition. Five days earlier, Gen Makenga initiated the siege of Goma at dawn. All forces were given a 48-hour ultimatum: surrender at Goma’s stadium or face destruction. Kinshasa was confident that the amassed forces in Goma would overwhelm the AFC/M23 fighters.
On January 23, AFC/M23 jammers disrupted SADC radio communications. Precision missiles destroyed two Rooivalk helicopters. For the next 12 hours, the FARDC coalition launched an all-out assault.
On January 25, the day planned for the attack on Rubavu, Goma awoke to intense gunfire. By 1 p.m., the mercenaries, caught in the chaotic retreat, surrendered in large numbers. Over 280 Romanian mercenaries sought refuge in Rwanda.
Congolese soldiers and FDLR fighters fled into Rwanda, the same country they had been preparing to invade. By morning, AFC/M23 flags were flying from the North Kivu governor’s office. The collapse was complete.
Western analysts dismissed Rwanda’s warnings as exaggerated. They overlooked the history, the legacy of 1994, and the regional tendency to ignore the FDLR. Rwanda has learned that it must rely on itself for survival. The UN and regional blocs will not intervene. Rwanda survives because it must. The actions of AFC/M23 neutralized the threat, providing Rwanda with strategic depth.
